Five Leading Potential Clients for Russia’s T-14 Armata Next Generation Battle Tank: From Indian Troops in Doklam to Egyptian Units in Sinai

First unveiled in 2015, the Russian Defence Ministry confirmed its first orders for two battalions of the T-14 Armata main battle tank in early 2018 - with officials expressing considerable faith in the design in multiple statements issued since. The tank is designed to be fielded as a heavier counterpart to the T-90M - an extensive modernisation of the original T-90A design integrating many of the same next generation technologies developed for the T-14. The Armata can thus be considered as a successor to the Soviet IS-3, T-64 and T-80 heavyweight tanks, which were designed as more elite and heavier analogues to the T-34, T-62 and T-72 respectively. Although Russia’s armed forces appear confident in the superiority of their existing tank designs over those in NATO service, plans by a number of Western powers to introduce fourth generation battle tanks by the early 2030s has led to concerns that the existing balance of power will shift in the West's favour.

The T-14 is one of just three fourth generation battle tanks in service today, alongside the South Korean K2 Black Panther and Japanese Type 10, and a number of new technologies and weapons systems are currently under development for integration onto the platform. The tank’s advanced capabilities are likely to make it highly attractive among Russian export clients, particularly as the design matures and integrates more next generation technologies, and acquiring the T-14 will provide clients with a means of gaining a qualitative edge over their neighbours and rivals. A look at five leading potential clients for the T-14 is given below.

India 

India has been the leading export client for both the T-72 and the T-90 main battle tanks, and has reportedly shown considerable interest in the T-14 design. With the failure of its indigenous Arjun battle tank program, which is well over least a decade behind schedule and has not met performance standards required of it, the Indian Army is set to continue to rely heavily on Russian armour for the foreseeable future. While India has placed orders for several hundred new T-90 tanks, which are currently being delivered, alongside modernisation of its existing armoured units which are several thousand strong, the T-14 is expected to be acquired as a successor once deliveries of the older platforms are complete. With neighbouring China fielding increasingly advanced platforms such as the Type 99A, which can rival the T-90’s capabilities and comfortably outperform the T-72, and with both China and Pakistan investing heavily in anti tank systems, the T-14 could provide an ideal means for India to gain a distinct quantitative edge. As China’s defence sector in particular continues to make rapid advances and introduce new technologies for armoured warfare, indefinite reliance on the T-90 exclusively could within a decade leave India at a qualitative disadvantage.

Belarus

While Belarus has been a major client for high end Russian weapon systems, including S-400 air defence systems and Su-30SM Flankers, its armoured warfare capabilities are increasingly at risk of falling behind those of its neighbours despite considerable investments in modernisation. Without the more elite T-90 or T-80 platforms, the latter which it did inherit from the USSR in very small numbers but does not currently operate, Belarus relies exclusively on the T-72 - deploying approximately 550 of the vehicles. Of these less than two dozen have been upgraded to the T-72B3 standard, with the vast majority being the ageing T-72B. While the T-72 is a formidable design, particularly when upgraded with modern sensors, munitions and armour, reliance on the platform alone risks leaving the country at a considerable disadvantage as neighbouring countries modernise their own armoured warfare capabilities. Plans for a vastly expanded U.S. military presence in neighbouring Poland will likely include deployment of more M1 Abrams battle tanks - widely considered the most capable Western tank in service. The South Korean K2 Black Panther is considerably more advanced still, and Poland is currently considering acquiring several hundred of these to modernise its armoured units. Acquisition of the T-14 could thus be vital to Belarus’ efforts to maintain some form of qualitative parity on the ground, and such an acquisition is made considerably more likely should Poland see through plans to purchase advanced South Korean tanks.

Algeria

A leading client for Russian arms, Algeria has continued to receive T-90 tanks in considerable numbers to modernise its armoured units. Approximately 600 of these are currently in service, alongside approximately 800 legacy tanks including over 300 T-72M1s, 200 T-62s and a smaller number of T-55s. While Algeria does not face any major threats to its armoured superiority, and retains the most capable tank divisions in Africa, as a leading client for Russian systems a T-14 acquisition remains likely in the long term. These tanks would further increase the gap in capabilities between the country and its neighbours, and provide a further deterrent to possible attacks. Algeria appears to have committed itself more fully to maintaining a large, modern and highly combat ready force since NATO attacks on neighbouring Libya in 2011 brought down the country’s government - with Libya’s extreme neglect of its armed forces credited with leaving it vulnerable to a sudden Western offensive. Alongside next generation aircraft, cruise missiles and air defence systems, the T-14 is likely to join the Algerian Army within the coming decade.

Vietnam

Like India, Vietnam has sought to acquire state of the art Russian weapons systems from submarines and fighter jets to air defences and battle tanks to retain some form of qualitative parity with neighbouring China. A major client for the T-90, Vietnam is likely to seriously consider purchases of the T-14 as Chinese armour and anti armour capabilities continue to improve. China’s existing HJ-12 anti tank missiles and Type 99A battle tanks can already seriously threaten T-90S tanks which Vietnam relies on, and as China's defence sector further improves on these and other designs and likely moves to introduce fourth generation battle tanks by the end of the 2020s the need for more advanced armour will become more urgent for Vietnam.

Egypt 

Following the overthrow of its Western aligned islamist government in 2013, Egypt emerged as a major client for Russian arms - placing large orders for MiG-29M and Su-35 fighters, R-77 missiles, Ka-52 attack helicopters and S-300V4 and BuK-M2 air defence systems among other major purchases. The Egyptian armed forces have increasingly looked to improve their frontline armour, currently comprised of a mix of American and Soviet systems, and have held negotiations for the licence production of T-90 battle tanks. With neighbouring Israel fielding the formidable Merkava IV battle tank, a heavy and very well armoured platform, and is working to develop more advanced tanks in future, Egypt may seek the T-14 either as an alternative to or alongside the T-90 to ensure an advantage in the case of a potential ground war. With approximately 2,500 tanks in service, Egypt’s armoured units are among the largest in the world - indicating the emphasis its armed forces have placed on this form of warfare. Acquisitions of next generation battle tanks from Russia thus remains a considerable possibility - particularly as older models such as the M1A1, M60A3 and T-62 which currently form the bulk of its frontline units increasingly cease to be able to compete against high end adversaries.