Turkey Receives First Batch of S-400 Missile Units From Russia - Will NATO Retaliate?

The Turkish Defence Ministry reported on July 12th that the first batch of Russian S-400 air defence system components had been delivered to the country. The ministry issued the following statement to this effect: ”Turkey received the first batch of S-400 air defence systems components. The deliveries are sent to the Murted Airbase in Ankara province.” Turkey has been repeatedly threatened with Western economic sanctions and expulsion from the Lockheed Martin F-35 fifth generation fighter program, in which it has been a Level Three Partner since the mid 2000s, should it proceed to purchase the Russian weapons system rather a Western manufactured alternative. Ankara for its part has consistently expressed doubt that the U.S. and its European partners would see through these threats on the basis that a Turkish expulsion from the program would delay it be several months and possibly over a year. Six major Turkish arms manufacturers are heavily invested in producing components for the F-35, and the country’s expulsion would require extensive preparations for these to be manufactured overseas. Turkey has further threatened to purchase Russian combat jets should it be denied the F-35, with the Su-57 next generation air superiority fighter currently on offer, and imposition of sanctions and other penalties thus risks alienating Ankara from the Western Bloc to the detriment of U.S. and European strategic interests. 

The first batch of S-400 components was delivered by air by an Antonov An-124 heavy lift aircraft, and a second delivery by air is expected in the coming weeks. A third larger batch of S-400 components, which will reportedly include 120 surface to air missiles, will be delivered by sea by the end of the summer. The S-400 is expected to have some operational capacity in the Turkish Armed Forces by the end of the year. Turkey is not known to have purchased the 40N6E missiles to accompany the S-400 system, meaning its batteries will be restricted to a 250km range - shorter than the 400km range of the S-400 systems deployed by Russian and Chinese forces. Turkish S-400 systems nevertheless have access to a wide array of over half a dozen missile types including multiple classes of hypersonic missile such as the 250km range 48N6DM. Turkey has show interest in acquiring more Russian air defence systems in future to competent the S-400, including the S-500 missile system and possibly short ranged complementary platforms such as the Pantsir-SM and BuK-M3.