No Second Batch of Rafale Jets? India Could Follow Egypt’s Example and Choose Russian Su-35s Over French Fighters

Egypt and India were the first two export clients for France’s Rafale lightweight twin engine ‘4+ generation’ fighter, with the two countries signing contracts in February 2015 and September 2016 respectively. Despite aggressive marketing by Paris, the French aircraft had previously performed poorly on export markets due to a lack of competitiveness in terms of either price or performance compared to rival non-European fighter designs such as the American F-15 and F-35. Although the Rafale did manage to gain contracts, both of which are widely considered to have been strongly politically motivated, the size of the orders made left much to be desired for the French manufacturer Dassault. Egypt purchased just 24 fighters, and despite negotiations for followup orders has not shown a strong interest in expanding is fleet. India meanwhile purchased 36 fighters - by far the smallest contingent of fighters in its Air Force which was down by over 70% from an original planned order of 126 jets. 

While Egypt was expected to be the first to place followup orders for the Rafales, the country would instead place orders for Russian fighters which were heavier and in many ways more capable. It purchased 46 MiG-29M medium weight fighters from Russia followed by an order in 2018 for an estimated 27 Su-35 ‘4++ generation’ heavyweight fighters. Followup orders for the Su-35, and for the MiG-29M’s more advanced successor the MiG-35 which became available for export from 2019, are considered far more likely than orders for the Rafale. The MiG-29M, although coming at a around one sixth the cost of the Rafale, came equipped with more powerful air to air missiles - the first in Egyptian service with a range over 100km - as well as Mach 3 sea skimming anti-ship cruise missiles which were far more sophisticated than anything in French service. Although the jets had weaker radars and slightly shorter ranges than the Rafale, they were much faster, could operate at higher altitudes, and benefitted from a superior thrust/weight ratio and overall much better flight performance. 

The discrepancy in price meant that the MiG-29M was not a direct competitor against the Rafale, but the Su-35 which cost approximately twice as much as the MiGs were similarly expensive. The Sukhoi jets are thought to have been purchased in place of further Rafale units, and eclipse the capabilities of the French aircraft across the spectrum. The Russian jets carry a much larger and more powerful sensor suite and benefit from a far longer range, access to much longer ranged air to air missiles and a superior flight performance. The French fighters’ only major advantage was its lower operational cost and lower maintenance requirements which came by virtue of it being a lightweight design  approximately 45% smaller. Perhaps most importantly, the Su-35 was also a much more viable design for the Egyptian Air Force should it seek to combat Western-aligned adversaries such as Israel or even Ethiopia - with France having a long history of providing the sensitive information on fighters sold to third world clients to its allies to help them counter such aircraft. 

Where the Su-35 represented a superior choice over the Rafale for Egypt, this may me the case to an even greater extent for India. The Indian Air Force could benefit greatly from technology transfers which accompany a Su-35 purchase as the bulk of its fleet already uses older Russian aircraft - and could benefit from integration of these technologies. A notable example was the Russian offer to allow India to manufacture the Su-35 under license, and use its technologies to upgrade its Su-30MKI jets with the newer aircraft’s next generation AL-41 engines and Irbis-E radar to drastically improve their performances. Unlike the Rafale, which though potentially dangerous in an air to ground role is a below average performer in the air to air domain, the Su-35 represents a dedicated air superiority fighter - an asset India notably lacks. The aircraft could pose a potentially serious challenge to Chinese J-20 and J-16 fighters and its upcoming J-31 and J-11D, and would also be better suited to deal with Pakistan’s upcoming JF-17 Block 3 jets. Ultimately the nature of India’s decision, which is expected to be influenced by both political and military factors and the need to cultivate France as a political supporter, remains to be seen. There is a very significant possibility that it will place orders for neither aircraft and instead focus on its indigenous Tejas light fighter and in future or more capable Russian Su-57 fighters - a successor to the Su-35 which it has shown a greater interest in.