U.S. Planning Extreme Measures to Prevent Iran From Receiving Modern Arms

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly planning to issue an executive order allowing the United States to impose unilateral economic sanctions on any party which sells armaments to Iran or which purchase weapons from the country. This follows a failure by the U.S. to extend a UN arms embargo on the Islamic Republic, which was imposed in 2006 and is scheduled to expire in October 2020 under the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal. The U.S. notably sought to extend the arms embargo through the United Nations Security Council, despite itself having withdrawn from the JCPOA and being in serious violation of its terms, although the council voted overwhelmingly opposed such an extension. The U.S. has since stated that it will interpret the failure of the council to abide by its request as grounds to fully reimpose UN sanctions on Iran - a drastic move met with harsh opposition even from allied states. Possible actions include not only threats to impose sanctions on Iran, butt also use of American’s blue water navy to intercept shipments of weaponry to the Islamic Republic. The U.S. has notably illegally intercepted shipping in international waters in the past without a UN mandate, and is likely to do so if ships carrying arms to Iran go unescorted.  

The U.S. threat to impose sanctions on arms suppliers to Iran is most likely to affect China and Russia, which are expected to sign several major arms contracts with the Middle Eastern country in the coming months. Iran’s third major arms suppler, North Korea, has notably ignored the arms embargo since 2006 and is unlikely to be influenced by the threat of American sanctions given that it is already far more heavily sanctioned by Western powers than even Iran is itself. A number of technologies which North Korea will be unable to provide - most notably fighter jets, medium-endurance attack submarines and desert-friendly battle tanks - are expected to be sought out from China and Russia, however. With Russia today already under heavy Western sanctions, and with its economy far less dependant on trade with the United States, Moscow appears far more likely to endure further rounds of U.S. sanctions in exchange for the benefit of Iranian arms contracts. Leading Russian weapons systems Iran is thought to be interested in include T-90MS battle tanks, S-400 air defence systems, Su-30 and Su-35 heavyweight fighter jets, MiG-35 medium weight fighter jets, R-77 air to air missiles and Improved Kilo Class attack submarines.