U.S. Air Force Needs Massive B-21 Bomber Fleet to Strike Deep Into China and Russia - Mitchell Institute Think Tank

The prominent Mitchell Institute Melbourne based think thank has published a paper strongly advising the U.S. Air Force not to cut costs at the expense of quantity on its B-21 stealth bomber program. The report was authored by former U.S. bomber pilot Mark Gunzinger, and stressed that the U.S. would need to neutralise a very large number of targets deep in the interiors of Chinese and Russian airspace in the event of war. The bomber, he claimed, would provide the most reliable means of doing so and was more cost effective and dependable than relying on standoff strikes using cruise missiles. Gunzinger also stressed the very low mission capable rates among the U.S. bomber fleet, a notable example being the B-1B Lancer of which over 90% were out of service in 2019, meaning more bombers would be needed to ensure a sufficient number could be combat ready at any time. The report stated to this effect: “Long round-trip mission distances will stretch an already small bomber force to the absolute limit in terms of affording commanders with the combat results they require within operationally acceptable time lines… Failing to strike enemy targets in a rapid, full spectrum fashion will ultimately result in a far more costly, longer, and risk-prone campaign.”

The Mitchell Institute’s report called for a bomber fleet of at leats 316 aircraft, which if plans to retire the B-1B and B-2 proceed would require little over 200 B-21s. It warned of the very limited ability of standoff weapons to reach deep into China’s interior specifically, with cruise and ballistic missiles unable to carry penetrative ‘bunker buster’ weapons needed to destroy fortified targets. Where all of America’s previous jet bombers were designed with attacks on the Soviet Union in mind, the B-21 is being designed with attacks on China’s far west in mind - where much of the People’s Liberation Army’s strategic arsenal is based. China’s air defence network is among the most advanced in the world, and continues to be enhanced with new technologies from new fifth and upcoming sixth generation fighters to new air to air missile types such as the PL-15 and PL-21 which, uniquely, use active electronically scanned array radars for guidance. China is also considered a leading candidate for Russia’s S-500 long range air defence system which is optimised for neutralising targets such as stealth bombers and has a 600km engagement range. Taking the S-300PMU variants and the S-400 as precedents, the S-500 could well be deployed in China before the first B-21 bombers become active.

The previous U.S. bomber class, the B-2 Spirit which entered service in 1997, notably saw production cut with just 20 of 120 previously planned aircraft built - leading a number of analysts to strongly warn against similar cuts for its successor. The first B-21 prototype began production in July 2019, and the program is expected to replace all B-2 and B-1B bombers in service and provide enough aircraft to furnish multiple additional squadrons. The bomber makes use of a flying wing design similar to the B-2, but is thought to be slightly smaller and carry less ordinance. It will have a much stealthier design and more powerful sensors, retain the B-2’s intercontinental range and is expected to have a much lower operational cost and lower maintenance requirements which were a major outstanding issue for the B-2. Alongside the B-21, the U.S. is also developing a weaponised variant of the SR-72 hypersonic unmanned space plane capable of functioning as bombers, which could provide a costly but substantial addition to American intercontinental range strike capabilities. A sixth generation fighter with a very long range, the Penetrating Counter Air Fighter, is also under consideration to serve specifically as an escort to the B-21.