Russia Aiding Armenia to Boost its Air Force - Also Offers Advanced MiG-35 Jets to Azerbaijan

The outbreak of hostilities following years of high tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan are expected to fuel greater investments in military modernisation in the medium-long term by both parties, with the two Soviet successor states both having relied heavily on Russia to improve their arsenals in the past. Although Armenia has maintained closer ties with Russia, hosting a Russian airbase, taking part in multiple joint military exercises and almost exclusively sourcing military hardware from its larger neighbour, Azerbaijan has also shown a strong interest in acquiring modern military aircraft from Russia. With Baku’s other two close defence partners, Israel and Turkey, unable to provide for all of its defence needs due to their far more limited defence sectors, Russia represents the most likely source for future generations of combat aircraft. 

Where Azerbaijan’s Air Force currently relies exclusively on Soviet built combat aircraft which are 30 years old or more, namely a small unit of MiG-29A fighters supported by Su-25 attack jet, Armenia benefits from access to very modern ‘4+ generation’ Russian heavyweight fighters and currently fields four Su-30SM heavyweight platforms. The discrepancy in sensors, electronic warfare systems, flight performance, armaments and weight range means that these jets will very likely be able to neutralise the entire Azeri Air Force without difficulty. It was announced earlier in the year that Armenia expected to receive eight more Su-30SM fighters to further bolster its fleet. Operating a fleet of 12 high end heavyweight jets is likely to stretch Armenia’s defence budget, and while continuous upgrades to the Su-30SM fighters are likely acquisition of new fighters classes is not. 

Azerbaijan for its part, stimulated by Armenia’s Su-30 acquisition and to a lesser extent by neighbouring Iran's anticipated military modernisation plans, has sent delegations to Russia to discuss the possibility of acquiring new fighter aircraft. The Azeri Defence Ministry reported in the first week of April that pilots from the country’s Air Force had test flown MiG-35 jets in Russia, indicating that this was likely to be the Air Force's first choice. It was subsequently reported, however, that a strong interest had also been shown in the Su-35 and Su-30 platforms. The MiG-35 is the latest class of fighter to join the Russian Air Force, entering service in June 2019, and was designed primarily for export. The jets are more manoeuvrable than the Su-30SM, with three dimensional thrust vectoring engines, and although shorter ranged and carrying less weapons their electronics are of a similar level of sophistication. The MiG-35 partially compensates for its smaller radar relative to the Su-30SM with a more sophisticated radar type - as the only active Russian fighter to integrate an AESA radar. 

As a MiG-29A operator with a relatively small defence budget, the MiG-35 could be an ideal fighter for Azerbaijan with the jet having a considerably lower operational cost than the Su-30 or Su-35 heavyweight jets - meaning more can be acquired and the aircraft can be flown more frequently. Moreover, given the small size of the theatre of operations, the MiG’s lower endurance will pose much less of a problem than it would for other operators. Furthermore, Russia has in the past offered to purchase old MiG-29 fighters from countries which seek to replace them with the MiG-35, meaning this could help offset the costs. The similarities between the two designs, which use much of the same maintenance infrastructure, will ensure a transition to a new generation is smooth. With Azerbaijan’s MiG-29s effectively obsolete today, a MiG-35 purchase is likely to be made sooner rather than later. Another significant possibility, however, is that Azerbaijan will acquire the Su-35 heavyweight fighter of the same generation in smaller numbers to provide a more decisive qualitative advantage over Armenian Su-30SM jets. The Su-35 is overall a more capable fighter than the MiG-35, despite having a less sophisticated radar, but its higher operational costs and maintenance requirements, as well as the higher cost of manufacturing the jets, means that if this fighter class is chosen it will be acquired in smaller numbers.