Major Power Overnight: Su-57 Jets in Myanmar Could Strike Targets As Far As Japan, Australia and the Middle East

Following reports that Myanmar’s armed forces are interested in procuring Russian Su-57 next generation heavyweight fighters to modernise its fighter fleet, and the recent statement of the country’s ambassador to Moscow to this effect, an assessment of the potential implications such an acquisition would have for the Southeast Asian state’s security appears highly relevant. The Su-57 is quite possibly the most capable fighter jet currently in service anywhere in the world, and with Russia continuing to test next generation technologies on the airframe it could potentially serve as the world’s first sixth generation fighter jet - with many capabilities well above the standard for fifth generation jets today. Future technologies currently in various stages include integration of artificial intelligence, laser weapons and a new generation of engine, electronic warfare, radar and data sharing technologies.

The Su-57  is the first in the world to deploy a laser defence system for intercepting enemy missiles, and is one of very few in the world to deploy hypersonic air to air missiles with the integration of the R-37M which are capable of striking targets up to 400km away at speeds of Mach 6. The fighter is also set to be the first in the world to deploy air to air missiles with active phased array antenna guidance systems, namely the K-77, which will reportedly make it nearly impossible to evade even for highly manoeuvrable fighters such as the American F-22 and Chinese J-10C. Where the Su-57 may really stand out in its value for Myanmar’s Air Force, however is in the potency of its long range strike capabilities - which will provide a deterrent capability not only against neighbouring states, but against targets well beyond Southeast Asia. Myanmar for its part has indicated an interest in acquiring longer ranged strike capabilities for some time, previously investing heavily in acquiring ballistic missiles from North Korea to this end alongside the manufacture of medium-endurance warships for regional power projection. Equipped with its most outstanding air to surface missile, the hypersonic Kh-47M2 ballistic missile, the Su-57 will effectively revolutionise the Southeast Asian state’s strike capabilities and provide it with a state of the art ballistic missile deterrent with few parallels in the world.

The Su-57 has an estimated combat radius of 2700-2750km, which combined with the range of the Kh-47M2 will allow operators to strike targets up to 4700km away from airfields where the jets are based. The missile itself is hypersonic, and can reportedly manoeuvre in flight, strike moving targets such as destroyers and troop convoys with high precision, and reportedly impacts its targets at speeds of Mach 10. This makes it effectively impossible to intercept for any currently deployed air defence system, including the Russian S-300V4 and S-400 systems, and is several decades ahead in its sophistication from any class of ballistic missile Myanmar currently deploys. Operating from airfields near the country’s eastern border, Su-57 fighters would be able to deliver hypersonic missile strikes against targets as far as the Middle East - including oil fields in the East of Saudi Arabia. Considering the Arab state’s hosting of anti-government groups which have previously launched attacks on Myanmar’s forces, this capability will not be politically insignificant despite the fact it is unlikely to be used. Coverage will also extent over India, Pakistan and much of the Indian Ocean. Launching sorties from Eastern Myanmar, Su-57 fighters will comfortably hold all of Japan in their range, as well as all of Southeast Asia up to Australia’s northwest coast. With analysts having long speculated that Myanmar has designs to be a major military power with significant strike and power projection capabilities, the deployment of the Su-57 equipped with the right missiles could be precisely what the country needs to realise this. Whether Russia will supply Kh-47M2 missiles to export clients for the Su-57 remains to be seen, but following reports that the missile’s technologies were transferred to China in 2018 to enhance the PLA’s own strike capabilities this remains a significant possibility.