Why the Su-35 in Egypt’s Hands is Bad for America

Following reports that Egypt's armed forces had contracted ‘over 20’ Su-35 next generation air superiority fighters from Russia, as part of comprehensive efforts to modernise its Air Force's combat fleet which have also included acquisition of lighter complementary MiG-29M fighters, the U.S. warned Cairo that it would be targeted by economic sanctions if it did not cancel the acquisition. The purchase represents the first ever acquisition by the Egyptian Air Force of modern high end air superiority fighters, something it has sought since the mid 1970s when it requested the United Starts sell it the F-15 Eagle - a platform sold to neighbouring Israel and Saudi Arabia and turned down by Iran in favour of the F-14. Egypt’s lack of high end heavy air superiority fighters has long left its Air Force at a major disadvantage relative to other high end air forces such as Israel and Algeria. Its Air Force's lack of access to modern air to air missiles due to U.S. export restrictions has meanwhile seriously restricted the capabilities of even its lighter American built fighter such as the F-16 - again ensuring it cannot pose a challenge to modern militaries such as Algeria or to higher level Western clients such as Saudi Arabia and Israel which deploy some of the latest AIM-120 variants. The U.S. built light fighters, which have for decades formed the backbone of the country’s fleet, are thus effectively incapable of posing a threat to adversaries except at short ranges - with the Vietnam War era AIM-7 missiles they deploy slow, imprecise and easy to spoof with even remotely modern electronic warfare countermeasures. This skewed balance of power, against Egypt’s interests, has long been perceived as highly favourable by Washington.

Even in small numbers, the Su-35 will revolutionise Egypt’s air to air combat capabilities - providing it with access not only to long range air to air missiles such as the R-27ER and R-77 designed to engage enemy fighters - but also to the hypersonic R-37M ‘AWACS killer’ which is capable of engaging enemy support aircraft such as the Saudi E-3 or Israeli Eitam. The fighter's Irbis E passive electronically scanned array radar will meanwhile provide an unprecedented level of situational awareness, and complement advanced long range air to air capabilities with the ability to target stealth fighters such as the new Israeli F-35s at intermediate ranges. The Su-35's combination of an unrivalled payload of fourteen missiles, powerful sensors, high speed and altitude and three dimensional thrust vectoring systems all make it the most capable air superiority fighter in the Middle East and Africa - possibly rivalled only by the F-15SA which, though technically a strike fighter, is capable of being deployed in an air superiority configuration. The Su-35 will not only place Egypt on par with other regional militaries in terms of aerial warfare, where its capabilities were previously seriously lagging, but it will provide the elite of its combat fleet with a distinct advantage and with capabilities which no other regional power currently possesses. 

The U.S. for its part has sought to simultaneously maintain Egypt as a dependant on Western arms while restricting its access to high end arms to ensure a balance of power favouring its closer clients such as Israel and Saudi Arabia. This recently materialised in U.S. moves to prevent France from selling Scalp cruise missiles to Egypt to equip its Rafale fighter jets, as while these were French weapons systems they made use of American components and the U.S. sought to keep the advanced munitions out of Egyptian hands. While the Presidency of Anwar Sadat in the 1970s was key to establishing this highly unfavourable relationship, which the former President endorsed often against the wishes of his military leadership, the new administration which came to power in 2013 has had very different plans for building the country’s defences - seeking nothing less than quantitative parity with its neighbours. Purchase of high end Russian air defence systems such as the S-300V4 and battle tanks such as the T-90 have furthered its quest to attain this goal. While U.S. officials claimed that benefits to Egypt of engaging with Russia were limited, a comparison of the sophistication of the arms America is willing to sell Egypt with those Russia has readily provided paints a very different picture. Ultimately, while Egypt’s fragile economy may force it to yield to U.S. demands, there is little to no chance that the U.S. would be able to provide it with high end air superiority capabilities of comparable quality and with comparable capabilities to the Su-35 - or even remotely modern air to air munitions to equip its older fighters for that matter.