Show of Force Aimed at NATO? Belarusian Military Conduct Exercises on Western Borders Amid Rising Tensions

Amid rising tensions with the Western Bloc and ongoing pro-Western riots and protests in the capital Minsk, Belarus’ armed forces initiated major military exercises on the country’s western border on August 28th. The initiation of exercises follows orders from President Alexander Lukashenko to dispatch special units and S-300 air defence systems to the border region, and the issuing of orders to units in the area to shoot without warning if engaged. The Defence Ministry reported regarding the exercises: “A comprehensive tactical exercise with a consolidated grouping of forces is running in the Grodno tactical area under the direction of the troop commander of the Western Operational Command. The consolidated force grouping includes mechanised, armoured, parachute, artillery and engineering units and also the teams of unmanned aerial vehicles and electronic warfare systems.” Exercises include qualification firing and battalion-level manoeuvres, with aircraft and specialised electronic warfare squads providing considerable support. A live-fire exercise and qualification special training measures have also been included as part of the drills. 

President Lukashenko previously instructed the Defense Ministry to closely monitor the movements of NATO forces in neighbouring Poland and Lithuania and to place forces on high alert on the western borders, although it remains uncertain whether the risk is greater of direct Western intervention or of provision of assistance including arms by Western powers to try to foster an internal insurgency. Mounting Western pressure on Belarus has led the government to strengthen cooperation with neighbouring Russia, with Russia having formed a reserve law enforcement unit specifically trained for riot control to support Belarusian forces in the event that current riots escalate and become more violent. Russian media has repeatedly indicated that Western powers have sponsored and helped to engineer such riots overseas to destabilised states outside the Western sphere of influence, the most notable example being in Hong Kong were pro-Western militants burned civilians alive, stabbed policemen, bombed hospitals and firebombed quarantine centres among other serious crimes. Belarus is expected to ask for Russian assistance should pro-Western rioters escalate to similar levels of violence, and Russia is also expected to assist Belarus should it come under more overt threat from neighbouring Western powers.