Riots in Belarus Push Minsk Closer to Russia: Lukashenko and Putin See Common Threat of Western Interference

Tensions between Belarus and the Western Bloc nations have risen sharply despite a brief improvement in relations earlier in the year, with several Belarusian and Russian sources accusing European and American actors of being behind ongoing protests and multiple riots which have taken place in the country surrounding the recent presidential elections. Although Minsk appeared to be seeking to balance Russian influence in the country by strengthening relations with the Western powers, and with the United States in particular, the perceived threat of Western meddling in its internal affairs through support for often violent anti government and pro Western riots appears to have driven the country firmly back into a close partnership with Moscow in the face of a common perceived threat. 

On August 15th Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said he had agreed with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that Russia would help maintain security in Belarus if needed - a possible indication that Russian forces could be deployed to Belarusian territory. Minsk has long been weary of Western efforts to expand their sphere of influence into the country, and with Russia conversely seeking a political union which would effectively bring the two states under a single government Lukashenko and his government are likely to be inclined towards the latter option. The president had indicated earlier in the year that, despite ongoing tensions with Russia, he was not necessarily opposed to the idea of some kind of political union - one which now could better serve the security interests of both countries. 

President Lukashenko said on August 15th that he had held a "long, detailed" conversation on security with President Putin, and that Belarus was entitled to Russia's military assistance under the CSTO and Unity State treaties. "So I and he agreed that we will receive comprehensive assistance in ensuring Belarus' security whenever we request it,” he concluded. The Belarusian president reportedly also ordered an air assault brigade would move to the country’s Western border on the same day, after expressing concern with an arms buildup in neighbouring Poland and Lithuania. Belarus has previously expressed significant concerns both at the expanding power of NATO forces on its borders, and from the smuggling of arms from neighbouring Western-aligned Ukraine. The country is Russia’s only major military partner in Europe, and deploys a wide range of advanced Russian weapons systems including Su-30SM heavyweight fighter jets and S-400 air defence systems - all of which would be compromised should a pro-Western government come to power in the country. Russian media has in the past accused Western parties of seeking to destabilise a number of its defence partners - with the governments of both Sudan and Bolivia having been toppled by Western-backed coups in 2019, and the government of Ukraine also being overthrown in 2014. There is thus a strong incentive for Moscow to seek to support the Lukashenko government.