Pukkuksong-3 Makes its Debut: North Korea Tests New Longer Ranged Submarine Launched Missile

Marking the longest ranged missile launch since the testing of the Hwasong-15 ICBM in November 2017, North Korea’s armed forces have tested a new submarine launched ballistic missile. The missile is speculated to have been launched from the country’s new class of ballistic missile submarine - which was first unveiled in July 2019 and has been dubbed Sinpo-C by South Korean analysts - based on the site of its construction at the Sinpo shipyards. While North Korea fields the world’s most numerous submarine fleet today, and has reportedly made considerable advances in air independent propulsion technologies for these vessels, it only began to publicly test submarine launched ballistic missiles in December 2014 with the Pukkuksong-1 - deployed from the country’s older Gorae Class submarine. The Pukkuksong-1 was an impressive and unique design which benefitted from compactness, use of an advanced solid fuel composite for a short launch time and a long range of up to 2500km. The missile was considered so successful that a land based derivative, the Pukkuksong-2, was developed soon afterwards and reportedly entered service from 2017.

The development of a submarine based nuclear deterrent has long been viewed as vital for states potentially facing threat of a major attack by a hostile power - particularly small states such as Israel and North Korea the former which has reportedly deployed nuclear tipped cruise missiles from its Dolphin Class submarines. The range of North Korea’s new submarine launched ballistic missile remains unknown, but it is likely to incorporate several new technologies developed in the country including a manoeuvring warhead and possibly a multiple warhead reentry vehicle. With new North Korean missiles demonstrating a capability not only to evade Western made missile defences, but also to evade detection altogether, it is likely that the country's latest design incorporates similar technologies. The new missile appears significantly larger than the Pukkuksong-1 and is expected to have a far longer range, possibly an intermediate range of over 4000km, which would allow it to strike targets on Guam from Korean waters and pose a threat to Hawaii, Alaska and the U.S. mainland when mounted on the new higher endurance submarine class. The Sinpo-C is reportedly capable of carrying up to three ballistic missiles, and if tipped with thermonuclear warheads it can pose a very significant threat to the United States mainland. Considering recent advances North Korea has made in missile technology, and the importance of a long strike range to a submarine based deterrent, it remains likely that the range of the new missile will be far longer than to 4000km needed to reach Guam - possibly closer to 6000km which would reduce the strain on the submarine itself and make strikes on the U.S. mainland far more viable.