American Reaper Drones Lost Over Syria’s Jihadist-Occupied Idlib Province - Crashed or Shot Down?

Two American MQ-9 Reaper drones were lost while operating over Syria’s Idlib province, with both reportedly destroyed while operating over the war zone. The incident occurred on August 18th, with some reports claiming that the two collided in midair while others indicate that jihadist militants based in the province were responsible. Idlib has been described by U.S. Military sources as the largest Al Qaeda safe haven since 2001 - with jihadist militias there numbering in the tens of thousands and receiving considerable support from neighbouring Turkey including surface to air missiles. Turkish forces notably directly intervened in Idlib province to support jihadist units against the Syrian Arab Army from February 2020, with the militants' air defences bolstered by the Turkish military to counter ongoing Syrian and Russian airstrikes on their positions. While the presence of Turkish forces on Syrian territory remains illegal under international law - lacking either permission from Damascus or a UN Security Council resolution - Ankara has indicated that it will keep its forces there indefinitely until the current Syrian government is removed from power. 

The presence of drones for the U.S. and other Western countries such Australia in Syrian airspace is widely seen as a violation of international law, although Damascus’ focus on countering jihadist forces over the past nine years has prevented it from providing an effective defence against hostile aircraft. It has been widely speculated that the Reapers over Idlib could have been shot down accidentally by jihadist units, mistaking them for Russian or Syrian aircraft which often operate over the territory. It is also possible that Al Qaeda linked groups could have intentionally targeted the American aircraft despite facing a common enemy in Damascus. The MQ-9 is a relatively slow and low flying aircraft which is potentially vulnerable to handheld air defence systems, with one having been downed in June over Yemen by Ansurullah Coalition forces and the aircraft suffering multiple losses before then. The drones are estimated to cost over $35 million each, and the U.S. has increasingly sought to more aggressively market them for export.