Why Russia Could Earn Billions of Dollars By Keeping its Aircraft Carrier: Sustaining the Admiral Kuznetsov Pays For Itself

In early July unconfirmed reports from Russian media indicated that plans were under consideration to retire the the Russian Navy’s sole aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, from service prematurely, and that work to refurbish modernise the warship had been suspended some time ago. This corroborated with prior reports in September 2024 that part of the crew of the Admiral Kuznetsov had formed a new naval infantry battalion, which although potentially being a result of higher levels of automation and reductions to crew requirements achieved during refurbishment, could also indicate that that there were no plans to restore the aircraft carrier to active service in the near future. While serious questions remain regarding the ability of Russia’s shipbuilding industry to refurbish the Admiral Kuznetsov, striking a particularly sharp contrast to the industry of neighbouring China where two aircraft carriers of the sale class are in service, returning the warship to frontline service with a modernised air wing has the potential to provide very significant future opportunities for the Russian defence sector. 

The retirement of the Admiral Kuznetsov without replacement is likely to face serious opposition domestically, with the knowhow needed for aircraft carrier operations having taken decades and considerable investment to build up, with the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Sphere of Naval Activity Until 2030 state document states that the Navy’s Northern and Pacific Fleets should each have an aircraft carrier. Perhaps more significant, however, is that continuing to field a carrier air wing not only provides Russia with opportunities for more complex exercises with two of its strategic partners with their own carrier fleets, namely China and India, but it also allows Russia to continue to market carrier related products to India and possible future clients. The Russian defence sector has already earned $2.35 billion from the sale of the aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya to the Indian Defence Ministry, and over $2 billion more to procure MiG-29K fighters for its deck, with several smaller aircraft carrier associated contracts being signed including an order for 14 Ka-31 airborne early warning and control helicopters. 

With India being unwilling to make significant procurements for its carrier program from China or the United States for political reasons, Russia has emerged alongside France as the only significant potential supplier. Not only does France rely on the United States for many of the technologies used on its own carrier, however, including its E-2 airborne early warning and control systems, but the French fighter aviation industry remains significantly behind the cutting edge, with no post-fourth generation fighters expected to enter service in the country until the 2040s or 2050s. As a result, France’s next generation aircraft carrier is scheduled to enter service in 2038 while still relying on a fighter wing comprised exclusively of Rafale combat jets - a type which first entered service in 2001 and even today is considered far behind its most capable Chinese, American and Russian counterparts in its capabilities. This leaves Russia with a very significant opportunity to market carrier based fifth generation fighter aircraft to India, among a wide range of other carrier based systems. 

Multiple reports from Russian and Indian sources have since February confirmed that talks are underway for the sale of Su-57 fifth generation fighters to equip the Indian Air Force, including a deal for license production of the aircraft in the country and a transfer of full source codes. Much as the first sale of fourth generation MiG-29 fighters to India was followed by the sale of MiG-29K carrier based variants, so too could a carrier based Su-57 variant prove highly attractive. Such an aircraft is expected to represent India’s only option to field a carrier based stealth fighter before the 2040s. Russian officials have frequently raised the possibility that a carrier based Su-57 could be developed, with the need to replace the ageing Su-33 carrier based fighters that previously operated from the Admiral Kuznetsov providing an opportunity for such procurements to be made. Without an aircraft carrier, Russia would be unable to effectively market new generations of carrier based fighters and other systems to India and potential clients, which could result in major losses in potential revenues for the defence sector far exceeding the savings made by retiring the Admiral Kuznetsov. The warship’s retirement without replacement would effectively exclude Russia as a serious future supplier for carrier based aircraft and other associated technologies.