Ukraine Claims Russia Attempted Drone Assassination of Former British PM Boris Johnson

A Russian drone struck a Ukrainian passenger train near the Polish border on September 13, shortly after a separate train carrying former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt and other senior European officials had departed the same station. Ukrainian Railways claimed  the diplomatic train had deliberately departed Yahodyn earlier than scheduled because of the changing security situation. The company subsequently assessed that it was “highly probable” that the Russian drone had actually been intended to strike the diplomatic train. 

Yahodyn is one of Ukraine's most important connections with Poland, and is located approximately 5 kilometres from the Polish border, as Russia conducted one of its largest aerial attacks on Ukrainian targets in recent months. More than 450 Russian drones and missiles were launched overnight, according to Ukrainian authorities. The strike on Yahodyn highlighted the significant vulnerability of Ukraine's western transport infrastructure, which is key to bringing supplies from NATO member states into the country. While analysts have widely indicated that the strike on Yahodyn represented a major show of force, claims that the diplomatic train itself was the intended target could represent a significant escalation, and would follow widespread targeting of Western personnel on the ground in Ukraine.

There remains an important distinction between proximity and confirmed intent. The fact that the diplomatic train passed through the station shortly before another train was struck does not by itself demonstrate that it was the intended target. The available evidence does not publicly establish whether the Russian drone was specifically programmed to attack the diplomatic service or was targeting the railway infrastructure more generally. A show of force thus appears to be more likely, although Ukrainian sources may seek to benefit by claiming that Russia is seeking to assassinate Western officials in order to increase NATO members’ support for the war effort. 

Russian sources have since early 2022 claimed that Boris Johnson bears significant responsibility for the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian War, as he visited Ukraine on April 9, 2022, when bilateral negotiations were still underway. He reportedly informed Ukrainian officials that the West would not accept an agreement with Russia, and that Ukraine should continue fighting rather than compromise. Johnson is confirmed to have offered additional British military assistance, with the United Kingdom subsequently playing a leading role in lobbying the wider Western world, and the United States in particular, to increase its commitment to the Ukrainian war effort.