Turkish and Syrian Forces Clash as Damascus Moves to Recapture Idlib: Artillery and F-16s Provide Cover for Jihadist Militants

As the Syrian Arab Army continues to advanced in Idlib province, making considerable gains against Islamist militants entrenched there, neighbouring Turkey has increasingly sought to intervene to stall and if possible halt Syrian progress. Following a massive incursion by Turkish troops into Syrian territory in October 2019, which was carried out despite violating international law and gaining widespread international condemnation, Turkey has continued to reinforce its presence in northwestern Syria and to arm Islamist militant groups operating in the area. From January 31st larger convoys of Turkish personnel and supplies reportedly redeployed across the border into Syrian territory, indicating resolve to hold ground and deny it to Damascus.

Idlib has been classified in U.S. Military reports as the world’s largest Al Qaeda safe haven since 2001, and deployments of Turkish personnel among the jihadist militias in Syria has led to several casualties among them. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has personally pledged to retaliate against Syrian forces, and the Turkish Air Force reportedly struck Syrian positions with F-16 fighters and rocket artillery shortly afterwards. Whether Syrian forces knowingly targeted Turkish personnel remains uncertain, and it remains to be seen how Damascus will respond. Turkish air attacks on Syrian forces have in the past been intercepted by Russian fighters, and while Russian units have themselves participated in airstrikes on militant positions in Idlib Moscow has also sought to deescalate hostilities between the two parties. Syrian forces launched the latest push northwards on January 26 from the city of Aleppo, in response to heavy shelling of the city from jihadist held positions. Attacks by Al Qaeda and its affiliates based in Idlib against Russian forces have also escalated, with Pantsir air defence combat vehicles intercepting multiple attacks by jihadist operated drones. With Turkey redeploying a number of jihadist militant units to North Africa, where it is seeking to support one of two warring factions in Libya's civil war, it remains to be seen whether Idlib will be restored to Damascus' control by the end of 2020.