Turkey Begins Offensive Into Syria Following U.S. Withdrawal - Looking at the Consequences of Invasion

Following the withdrawal of a small U.S. military contingent from north-eastern Syria, Turkey’s armed forces have launched a sizeable offensive supported by airstrikes under the pretext of eradicating terrorist forces in the region. Both the U.S. and Turkish military presence in Syria is illegal under international law, with neither gaining permission of the Syrian government to deploy their forces, but with Damascus’ own forces preoccupied in counterinsurgency operations and maintaining no presence in the northeastern regions there is unlikely to be a response in the near future. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the operation had begun on October 9th, promising to create a ‘safe zone’ cleared of both Islamist and Kurdish militant groups. The operation has been met with significant criticism in Europe, and Western aligned Kurdish groups have perceived the move as a considerable threat after operating with a relatively free hand under U.S. protection.

Turkey has been one of the largest supporters of Islamist insurgent groups in Syria’s Idlib province, the last stronghold of Al Qaeda affiliates in the country. These include jihadist fighters from a number of Turkic tribes, with militants coming from origins as diverse as Xinjiang and Turkmen. Battles surrounding the area are ongoing, with Russian and Syrian forces conducting frequent airstrikes. The death toll from a full-scale assault expected to surpass 10,000 at a conservative estimate, although such an attack has yet to commence. As Damascus’ primary protector and foreign supporter, Russia has actively sought to limit Turkish incursions into the country and has deployed fighters to intercept Turkish airstrikes in the past when Syrian forces were threatened. The consequences of the Turkish assault for relations with Moscow and Damascus remain to be seen, but are likely to be significant unless the territory is eventually restored to Syrian government control.