Syria Will Deploy the S-300 Within Two Weeks; Russian Defence Ministry Takes Response to Israeli Actions Into Its Own Hands

Following the downing of a Russian Il-20 surveillance aircraft operating from Khmeimim airbase in Syria’s Latakia province, a result of an Israeli incursion into Syrian territory in which Israeli Air Force F-16 fighters reportedly used the Russian propeller driven aircraft as cover against Syria’s air defences, Russia’s Defence Ministry referred to Israel’s actions as hostile, provocative and “absolutely contrary to the spirit of the Russian-Israeli partnership.” While Russian President Putin referred to “an unfortunate series of incidents,” falling short of placing the blame on Tel Aviv, Russia’s Defence Ministry has issued a far harsher response - accusing Israel’s armed forces of failing to provide sufficient prior warning before launching strikes on Syrian territory which resulted resulted in the deaths of fifteen Russian servicemen. This was followed by a statement from a prominent member of the Russian parliament's upper house's defense committee, Frants Klintsevich, who stated regarding a potential response: “We… have all the necessary resources to completely close the Syrian airspace for Israel, and this is only one of the options.”

Russia’s Ministry of Defence on September 24th openly revealed the nature of its response, with Defence Minister Shergei Shoigu stating that the S-300 surface to air missile system would be delivered to Syria’s armed forces within two weeks. While Russia has notably indicated that it may consider delivering the S-300 to Syria in the past, in response to a joint U.S., French and British attack on the country in April 2018, pressing Israeli requests to cancel such a delivery notably led Russia to withhold sending the weapons platform to the Syrian armed forces. While Russia sought to provide Syria with a more capable means of defending its airspace to better protect against potential future Western attacks, with the country’s air defence network otherwise reliant on weapons platforms such as the S-125 and S-200 delivered in the 1980s, such a move would have compromised Israeli security - potentially allowing Syrian forces to shoot down Israeli aircraft over Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion airport using missile batteries in Syria itself. With Israel having engaged in what was perceived to be a direct provocation against Russian forces however, Russian considerations for Israeli security appear to have received a considerably lower priority.

Syria notably previously sought to acquire both the S-300 and MiG-31 interceptors from Russia, both of which saw their deliveries cancelled by Moscow due to Israeli requests, undermining Damascus’ plans to provide a more effective defence for Syrian airspace. Russia’s Defence Ministry stated regarding these orders and their cancellation: “In 2013 on a request from the Israeli side we suspended the delivery to Syria of the S-300 system, which was ready to be sent with its Syrian crews trained to use it.” It was reported that the variant of the S-300 Syria sought to acquire was the S-300PMU-2, the predecessor to the S-400 specialised in an anti aircraft role. While far less sophisticated than newer Russian air defence systems such as the BuK-M3 and S-300V4, the S-300PMU-2 is still set to pose a considerable threat to Israeli combat aircraft - the vast majority of which are upgraded variants of American designs from the 1970s. With Russia itself deploying both the S-400 and the S-300V4 to Syria, two of the most advanced air defence systems in the world, Syria’s air defence platforms will still be considerably inferior to those of the Russian military - but more than sufficient to pose a considerable threat to Israeli fighters in its airspace. How Israel will respond to this, particularly given the urgency of evicting Iranian aligned militias from Syria which have been the targets of many of the country’s air attacks, remains to be seen.