Serbia to Acquire More Chinese Air Defence Systems: Long Range HQ-9B a Leading Option

The Serbian Defence Ministry is planning to procure new air defence equipment from China, according to reports from multiple local sources, as President Aleksandar Vucic has announced the imminent signing of new contracts to strengthen the country’s network. Serbia relies more heavy on surface-to-air missile systems than any other European state, with its limited defence spending levels and small relatively old fighter fleet limiting its ability to seriously contest control of its airspace using its combat aviation assets. The Chinese HQ-22 medium range surface-to-air missile system currently forms the backbone of the country’s air defence network, and began deliveries in April 2022. 

Alongside the HQ-22, Serbia also fields Chinese HQ-17A point defence systems, Russian Pantsir-S air defence combat vehicles, and modernised variants of the Soviet S-125 - a medium range system that lacks mobility. Although President Vucic did not specify which kinds of systems would be procured, analysts have long projected that the ground-based air defence network will rely increasingly on Chinese equipment. A primary factor causing this is the lower levels of trust with NATO member states, which produce on a limited range of ground-based air defence systems, at high costs, and with very limited allowances for operators’ autonomy. The historical memory of NATO bombardment of Serbia, and NATO members’ involvement in supporting and widespread recognition of the separation of Kosovo from Serbia, despite the United Nations recognising it as part of the country, further reduces the possibility of Serbia relying on Western equipment. A further factor is that Serbia has endured considerable Western political pressure not to procure Russian armaments, which makes further major orders from Russia appear unlikely.

One significant possibility is that Serbia will bolster its air defence capabilities by procuring a higher tier system, namely the Chinese HQ-9B, which is broadly considered an analogue to the Russian S-400 system. The Serbian Defence Ministry has considered procuring advanced long range air defence systems in the past, including the Russian S-300PMU-2 and S-400 systems, with a Russian Aerospace Forces S-400 battalion having deployed to the country in October 2019 for exercises on Serbian territory, in what was widely considered an effort to familiarise local forces with its capabilities. Intensive Western pressure including threats of economic sanctions were primary factors preventing Serbia from proceeding with a purchase, with the shorter range HQ-22, although similarly sophisticated, not being a direct alternative. 

The HQ-9B could fill the gap in the country’s planned force structure that was left when plans to acquire Russian long range systems were abandoned, with unconfirmed reports from local sources indicating that the Defence Ministry has shown a strong interest in the system. Procurement of the lower cost HQ-22 may have served to familiarise the Serbian Armed Forces with relatively high end Chinese air defence systems, serving as a stepping stone to acquiring the more complex HQ-9. A further significant possibility is that orders will be placed to acquire further units of HQ-22 systems to provide greater coverage across the country. While the HQ-9 is not the highest tier Chinese air defence system currently in service, the HQ-19 and HQ-29 are both highly specialised in defence against strategic ballistic missile, and are highly unlikely to be considered since the primary threats facing Serbia are from fighters, air-launched cruise missiles, and unmanned aircraft.