Chinese Strategic Nuclear Submarine Surfaces in Taiwan Strait: A Show of Force to Taipei’s Western Backers

On June 18 a Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy Type 094 Jin Class ballistic missile submarine surfaced near the Taiwan Strait, in a rare show of force, which has widely been seen as a signal to Western states that have increased their military focus on the area. Taipei-based media outlets published a number of photos of the ship,  which reportedly surfaced just 200 kilometres off the island’s west coast. The submarine was joined by an unidentified surface ship at the time. Type 094 Class submarines form the backbone of the Chinese Navy’s strategic nuclear deterrent, with six of these 11,000 ton ships currently in service each carrying 12 intercontinental range ballistic missiles. It remains uncertain whether these ships continue to rely solely on the JL-2 ICBM, or whether they have begun to deploy the enhanced JL-3, after it saw multiple underwater test launches beginning in the late 2010s. The new missile has an estimated engagement range of up to 14 kilometres, and is expected to also equip the Type 094’s successor currently under development under the Type 096 submarine program. 

The surfacing of a Type 094 Class submarine comes as China has invested significantly in expanding its nuclear forces, including seeking to bridge gaps in its bomber fleet with the United States and Russia by commissioning its first intercontinental range strategic bomber class the H-20 by the end of the decade. Tensions in the Taiwan Strait have been particularly high since the inauguration of the new strongly Western-aligned Democratic Progressive Party administration of Lai Ching-te. The region has been technically in a state of war since 1949 after one of two rival Chinese governments that fought in the country’s 22 year long civil war related its capital to the island and came under American protection. 

The rival Chinese governments in Taipei and Beijing both currently claim to be the sole legitimate governments of the Chinese nation, although the former lacks UN recognition and has diplomatic ties with only 11 of the UN’s 193 member states. The mainland’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has responded to the perceived provocative nature of the new Taipei administration’s rhetoric with shows of force, including previously the initiation of Joint Sword-2024A exercises on May 23, which involved simulated strikes on positions on Taiwan by multiple fighter units, bombers, ballistic missiles and rocket artillery assets.