Chinese Forces Ordered Not to Shoot First in Possible Incidents with U.S. Military - Tensions Remain High

Personnel of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have reportedly been instructed to deescalate any incident with the U.S. Military to avoid potential clashes in the Western Pacific region. This comes amid growing tensions between the two countries as the U.S. approaches a presidential election, with Washington taking a much harder line against Beijing and not only escalating economic warfare efforts and hostile rhetoric - but also deploying more forces near Chinese territory for manoeuvres which are seen by Beijing as highly provocative. China, for its part, appears eager to avoid an accidental escalation to open conflict as American forces increasingly operate in close proximity to the PLA. This is despite the PLA having demonstrated the ability to neutralise American assets across the Pacific, and recently having fired a DF-26 ballistic missile which is considered a serious threat to U.S. assets including both ships and military bases - a major show of force. This was carried out in response to the deployment of two American carrier battle groups to the region for exercises which were almost unanimously seen to be aimed at intimidating Beijing. 

The PLA’s capabilities have grown extremely quickly over the past decade, with China today deploying what are widely considered the world’s most capable destroyers, the Type 055 Class, as well as a very large fighter fleet comprised largely of modern fifth generation and ‘4++ generation’ jets which are on par and in many ways surpass their American counterparts. More recently, China has deployed its new H-6J tactical bomber designed for anti shipping operations to bases in the South China Sea - which is also seen as a major show of force aimed at deterring American activities in the region. With the U.S. facing a serious economic crisis, and estimates of the Donald Trump administration’s chances of reelection today being far lower than previously thought, a number of analysts have speculated that the administration could be prone to taking rash action against China, a supposed adversary, to provide a much needed boost to its popularity domestically. A promising development, however, was the phone conference held between U.S. Defence Secretary Mark Esper and his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe which focused on “preventing and managing crises,” in which both agreed on the importance of improving mechanisms for crisis communications and risk reduction. It remains uncertain whether U.S. forces deployed to East Asia have been issued with similar orders to those issued to the PLA to deescalate and avoid clashes.