China Surpasses Russia as World’s No. 2 Weapons Manufacturer - Will it Take First Place By 2030?

A report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute think tank has concluded that China has surpassed Russia as the world’s second largest arms producer - marking the first time in 75 years that a nation other than the U.S., the Soviet Union or Russia has been one of the world’s top two manufacturers. The report was published on January 27th, although it conceded that the data available for the scale of weapons production in China in particular was very limited. The possibility remains that China achieved this position well before 2020, as the achievements of its defence sector have consistently superseded expectations of western analysts over the past decade. The Swedish think tank reportedly reached its conclusion based on limited data available from four leading Chinese defence manufacturers, including the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), China North Industries Group Corporation (NORINCO) China Electronics Technology Group (CETC) and China South Industries Group Corporation (CSGC).

It is notable that the size of a defence producer was valued based on the cost of all arms sold - rather than the quantities produced. This measuring system strongly favoured less efficient producers - and particularly those in higher wage states which, due to lower purchasing power, priced their arms much higher. If taking into account discrepancies in purchasing power, China’s defence sector is likely to be valued considerably higher and, given the rate of growth, may well approach first place in the coming years. China’s defence sector has evolved from a mid-level producer to a world leading producer over the last decade, and has led the world in the quality of many of its weapons systems from J-20 fifth generation air superiority fighters to WZ-8 hypersonic surveillance drones, YJ-18 cruise missiles and Type 055 Class destroyers - to name a few of the more prolific examples. These weapons systems are all global leaders in their respective fields.