China’s Nuclear Submarine Fleet Overtakes Russia’s as Production Surge Expands Numbers

The latest estimates for the size of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy’s nuclear powered submarine fleet indicate that it has overtaken that of the Russian Navy in size, making it the second largest only to that of the United States Navy. A primary driver of this trend has been the large scale production of the Type 093B class attack submarine, of which 16 are estimated to have begun construction. The Navy is currently estimated to field 32 active nuclear powered submarines, compared to an estimated 25-28 in the Russian Navy, including nine older Type 093/093A class attack submarines, nine Type 094/094A ballistic missile submarines, and 14 Type 093B class attack submarines. Relatively little is known about the Type 093B class, although it is expected to integrate YJ-20 hypersonic ballistic missiles and YJ-19 hypersonic cruise missiles as a primary armaments, and to be the last variant of the Type 093 class design as production shifts to the newer Type 095 class. 

The U.S. Navy has perceived a fast growing challenge from China’s submarine fleet, with the service entry of new generations of vessels and associated armaments having occurred at an unparalleled rate. A growing consensus has formed among analysts in the United States that while the performance of Chinese submarines, and particularly their quietness, has improved considerably, the U.S. Navy has been hindered by a major shortfall in submarine production capacity. The American submarine fleet is expected to remain far below planned numbers, with the country’s shipyards able to build just 1.2 attack submarines per year, while the Navy would optimally be procuring the ships almost twice as fast at 2.33 per year. The U.S. has also remained significantly behind in integrating hypersonic missiles onto its submarine and its surface fleets. 

It is widely expected that the new Type 095 class attack submarine and Type 096 class ballistic missile submarine currently under development will provide the People’s Liberation Army Navy with a lead over the most capable American and Russian vessels, with the ships expected to integrate a range of new features such as magnetic drive technologies and Rim Driven Propellers not seen abroad. Recently commenting on the program, former U.S. Navy officer Christopher Carlson observed: "The Type 095 will be a very quiet submarine, which will complicate the situation." Senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation think tank Brent Sadler similarly warned that Chinese submarine technologies appeared to be making significant strides, making the ships more difficult to track.  

One Type 095 hull is under early assembly, while the first Type 096 is reportedly also under construction, with their service entry into the early 2030s expected to make China a world leader in its submarine capabilities. This mirrors the country’s rapid emergence as a distinct leader in a wide range of other fields, including destroyers with programs such as the Type 055 class, aviation with three sixth generation fighter types all at flight prototype stages, and intercontinental range nuclear deterrence with hypersonic glide vehicles that can travel in ways that other countries’ strategic assets cannot match. The scale of investment in producing Type 093B class ships is a significant indicator that a number of the technologies developed for the Type 095 class submarine program are likely to have been integrated onto the vessels, allowing them to serve as an advanced stopgap until the next generation ships begin to enter service.