Venezuela Seeks Russian Assistance in Modernising Air Defences Amid U.S. Threats; How Well Protected is its Airspace?

Following a meeting between Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu and his Venezuelan counterpart Vladimir Padrino Lopez, the South American state has expressed interest in acquiring new Russian manufactured air defences to strengthen its anti access area denial (A2AD) capabilities against potential air attacks. Venezuela's armed forces have also sought assistance in upgrading platforms already in service. The talks took place a day after separate talks were held between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro, which reportedly heavily covered the field of defence. Minister Padrino Lopez stated to this effect during his meeting with Minister Shoigu: “In the course of the talks between our presidents [Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which took place yesterday, many issues related to the military area were raised. Particularly, those on strengthening cooperation in maintenance of the equipment supplied to our country from Russia. These are land-based and air systems. We agreed on the need of upgrading these systems.”

A former Western defence client, Venezuela’s armed forces have grown heavily reliant on Russian arms for their defence needs - with the country’s vast oil wealth having facilitated a considerable budget for the acquisition of new armaments. In the field of aerial warfare, these have included two dozen Su-30MK2 air superiority fighters, S-300VM long range surface to air missiles systems and medium range BuK-M2E air defence systems. These are complemented by the shorter ranged S-125 - a heavily upgraded Cold War era system potentially lethal against low flying aircraft. The Su-30 fighters in service are equipped with R-27ER and R-77 air to air munitions, with engagement ranges of 130km and 110km respectively - surpassing those of the American AIM-120B and AIM-120C which outfit the vast majority of U.S. fighters. The Su-30MK2 is a high end air superiority fighter and the most capable variant of the Flanker design other than the Su-35 - fielding advanced thrust vectoring systems and high end sensors.

With Venezuela’s strike capabilities beyond its borders extremely limited, the core of its deterrent capability agains the United States is its ability to target U.S. combat jets in its airspace - thus making a potential attack extremely costly. Caracas thereby introduces a a significant risk factor which was not present in Libya, Iraq, Syria, Panama, Grenada or other theatres where the defender’s air defence capabilities were extremely limited. The country’s advanced ‘4+ generation’ air superiority fighters are also far above and beyond the capabilities of anything previously faced by a Western Air Force, though the training of Venezuelan pilots remains open to question. Given its central role in protecting national airspace, and the heavy emphasis the United States and its allies have placed on gaining air superiority to facilitate military victory, modernisation of Venezuelan air defence capabilities is critical to the country’s security.

While Venezuela has already sought to improve training for its combat pilots, with assistance from Russia based in the Russian Air Force’s experience operating combat missions in Syria, acquisition of new fighters remains likely. Caracas had reportedly planned for the acquisition of more advanced Su-35 air superiority fighters, likely a similar sized contingent of two dozen jets, which was forestalled by a plunge in oil prices and a severe economic crisis. With oil prices again rising, threats to the country remaining and signs that the economy may be recovering, it is very possible that Venezuela could again consider acquiring the high end Russian air superiority fighters. Upgrading of existing air defence systems with Russian assistance is also highly likely, as is the potential acquisition of new and more advanced systems such as the Pantsir-S1 air defence combat vehicle, the BuK-M3 ‘Viking’ or the S-400 long range surface to air missile system - a potent complement to the S-300V already in service.