Ukraine Launches First Ever ATACMS Ballistic Missile Strike on Russia Proper: U.S. Escalates Pressure as Frontlines Falter

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have reported the first launch of an MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) ballistic missile strike into internationally recognised Russian territory, with the system’s reliance on Western advisors and satellite guidance indicating that the United States has approved this escalation of the country’s attacks. Commenting on the attack, the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff pledged: “The use of long-range strike capabilities, including systems such as ATACMS, will continue.” Unconfirmed reports indicate that the target may have been the Pogonovo training area in the Voronezh region, although Russian sources reported that the missiles were launched against civilian targets. Although the ATACMS has been used to significant effect multiple times in the past, it has been restricted to targets in disputed territories claimed by both Russia and Ukraine in the Donbas regions and on the Crimean Peninsula. 

The launching of ATACMS strikes against a much wider range of Russian targets is likely to represent part of concerted efforts to press Moscow to accept a ceasefire on terms favourable to Western interests, with the pressure campaign having also included supporting large scale drone attacks against key infrastructure including energy facilities. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service in late 2024 referred to plans intended to allow Western Bloc states to rebuild Ukraine’s much depleted forces to “prepare it for an attempt at revenge,” asserting that NATO training centres had already begun to be set up to process at least one million new Ukrainian conscripts. The urgency of ending hostilities has grow as Ukraine has faced an increasingly critical personnel shortage, and unsustainable casualties and equipment losses, allowing Russia to advance throughout the year while taking losses at significantly lower rates than in the preceding three years. 

Delivery of ATACMS to Ukraine has provided an effective means for Western Bloc states to maximise destruction against Russia, with support from Western personnel on the ground having reportedly extended to support with inputting targeting coordinates before firing. The sheer quantities of missiles delivered having meant that although they are intercepted at high rates, their occasional successes can cause tens of millions of dollars in damage from a single strike. Successes have included the destruction of two launchers from S-400 air defence systems in November 2024, destruction of one of the system’s long range radars in January, and the destruction of further radars in June, as well as successful neutralisation of Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile launchers earlier that month. The intensity with which they have been used, however, has resulted in a serious depletion of stocks.