U.S. Fighter Fleet in Very Poor Shape - Can Defence Secretary Mattis Fix it Within a Year?

The American fighter fleet remains the largest in the world by a considerable margin - with approximately 2,400 jets in service in the country’s Navy, Marines and Air Force as of 2018. Despite its size however, since the end of the Cold War and the end of superpower rivalry a growing proportion of this fleet has been left out of service - largely a result of complacency which came about due to the considerably reduced likelihood of a unexpected major war with a near peer military power. The bulk of the American fleet is comprised of F-16 and F-18 fighters, relatively low cost light combat jets operated primarily by the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy respectively, with a smaller elite being made up of more costly and specialised F-15 and F-22 air superiority fighters - under 400 in total, alongside little over 250 F-15E heavy strike fighters. Despite the far lower maintenance requirements of the light fighters, the military has struggled to keep a high proportion in service due to the extreme numbers in which they are fielded.

In response to the reemergence of Russia and emergence of China as near peer military rivals, alongside to a lesser extend the military modernisation of North Korea, U.S. Defence Secretary James Mattis has called for the armed forces to have 80% of its fighter fleet combat ready within a year. The Secretary stated: “For change to be effective and efficient, we must focus on meeting our most critical priorities first. These include achieving a minimum of 80 percent mission capability rates for our FY 2019 Navy and Air Force inventories—assets that form the backbone of our tactical air power—and reducing these platforms operational and maintenance costs every year starting FY 2019.” He continued: “Progress cannot be limited to these platforms alone...our Military Departments must also set and pursue aggressive targets for our other enduring fixed wing and rotary wing aviation assets.”

Given the current combat readiness levels of the American fleet, this remains an extremely ambitious goal - but one widely considered increasingly necessary in light of the return to near peer competition among major military powers. The 2011 Budget Control Act passed under the Obama administration notably worsened the situation for the American air fleet, and alongside the administration’s cancellation of the F-22 program due to budgetary constraints it seriously undermined the ability of the U.S. military to counter near peer adversaries. Maintaining the fleet at a high combat readiness level is likely to be extremely costly - particularly among heavier fighters which have extreme maintenance requirements. Combat readiness among heavier and higher maintenance jets remains considerably lower, with the F-16 - America’s lowest maintenance fighters - seeing 70% of the fleet ready for action while under half of the country’s F-22 Raptors - its highest maintenance fighters - are combat ready. The Navy’s F-18E Super Hornets fleet meanwhile retains a combat readiness rate of 53% - despite having a considerably lower maintenance airframe than its Cold War era predecessor the F-14 Tomcat. 

One key difficulty the U.S. military is likely to face in attempting to retain a high combat readiness level of its combat assets is the growing maintenance requirements of its combat aircraft. This is a result both of the growing age of the bulk of the country’s fourth generation fighter fleet, which see maintenance requirements increase every year as they grow older, and the far higher maintenance needs of next generation stealth aircraft such as the F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II - both of which cost considerably more not only to acquire but also to keep flying than their simpler fourth generation predecessors. The F-35A for example has double the hourly operational cost of the F-16 and spends considerably more time on the ground, and maintenance needs are even higher for the specialised F-35B and C variants. Despite a larger defence budget and an end to defence cuts under the Trump administration, the result of the growing pressures being placed on American military aviation to maintain its massive fleet is that a higher degree of combat readiness is likely to translate to a gradual contraction in the fleet size. As fighters age and newer fighters become more expensive to operate, this appears the only effective option for the military short of massive increases to the defence budget - ones considerably greater than any administration is likely to be willing to consider in the foreseeable future.