Poland to Triple Forces on Belarusian Border From Next Month

Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz has confirmed that the country will from August triple the size of its military contingent on the Belarusian border, marking a major escalation in longstanding tensions between the two neighbours. The minister’s statement followed reports from Minsk that Warsaw had ceased cooperation on managing the situation on the border. The surge in the Polish military presence comes amid growing concerns in the Western world regarding Belarus’ possible role in an escalation of hostilities between Russia and NATO surrounding Ukraine, and concerns in Minsk and Moscow that the Western Bloc states could take military action against Belarus. Poland has invested tens of billions of dollars in modernising its ground forces in recent years, including through acquisitions on a tremendous scale of South Korean K2 tanks, K9 mobile howitzers and Chunmoo rocket artillery, as well as M1A1 and M1A2 Abrams tanks and HIMARS rocket artillery systems from the United States.

Belarus earlier in July notably for the first time hosted a contingent from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army for the Eagle Assault 2024 military exercises less than 5 kilometres from the borders of Poland. The exercises prepared forces for river crossings, urban warfare, and even airborne assaults. This followed a decision by the Belarusian Defence Ministry in late June to deploy a division of Polonez rocket artillery systems near the Polish border due to an increase in tensions in the area. These assets were jointly developed with China and boast a performance widely considered the most capable in Europe. The Belarusian Defence Ministry has since the end of the 2010s invested in the modernisation of its Soviet era tank inventory and in acquisitions of Su-30SM fighters, Mi-35 helicopters, Iskander-M missile systems and S-400 air defence systems from Russia.