Why Russia Lost the Key First Stages of the War in Ukraine: New Details on How its Lightning Assault on the Capital Failed

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has provided new information on the factors that led the Russian Armed Forces to suffer major setbacks in the early stages of its military campaign in the Ukrainian theatre in February-March 2022. He assessed the conflict could have ended quickly in the early stages, when Russian forces were near the Ukrainian capital, observing: “At the time, not only I, but everyone in the world understood that the war would end quickly with a Russian victory. This was primarily because the Russians were in Kiev.” “Certain politicians and forces” requested that Russian President Vladimir Putin cease advances, pull forces back, and conclude a peace agreement, he observed, adding: “Before that withdrawal, everyone understood that Ukraine’s days were numbered.”

The Belarusian president argued that Russia was acting on what appeared to be a genuine opportunity to reach a settlement, adding: “Judge for yourselves who was right and who was wrong in this matter.” “Once again, probably, these forces deceived him. It was the Vatican. And surprisingly, the Jewish lobby, the Israelis,” Lukashenko said. “They said on behalf of [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky: That’s it, we are moving toward peace, we agree. And others as well.” References to a “Jewish lobby” may have referred to a lobby inside Russia, or else to efforts by then-Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. The Russian Defence Ministry on March 29 announced that it would reduce military activity around Kiev and Chernihiv, with Western sources portraying this primarily as an operational redeployment, rather than a political concession as President Lukashenko had indicated.

At the outset Russia’s military campaign on 24 February 2022, Russian forces advanced on Kiev from multiple directions. Units of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 36th Combined Arms Army, 41st Combined Arms Army, 1st Guards Tank Army, airborne formations, and special operations forces advanced south from Belarus along the western and eastern banks of the Dnipr River, with the objective of seizing key transport routes, isolating the capital, and enabling a rapid assault on the city. The withdrawal a month later proceeded rapidly, with Russian formations retreating north into Belarus and western Russia for refitting, replenishment, and eventual redeployment to the Donbas theatre. By early April 2022, U.S. and Ukrainian officials assessed that Russian forces had completely withdrawn from the Kiev region.

The government of Russian President Vladimir Putin has faced staunch criticism from within the country and from abroad due to perception that it had made excessive concessions to NATO members, worsening Russia’s strategic position, prolonging the war effort, and placing Russian personnel in unnecessary danger. President Lukashenko’s recent statement that the withdrawal from Kiev was a political decision strongly supports such criticisms of Moscow’s strategic decisionmaking. The war has caused significant strategic setback to Russia, and while analysts have raised serious questions regarding Western claims of extreme Russian casualties of over a million personnel, losses are estimated to have been considerable particularly in the conflict’s early stages. The war has nevertheless also been highly detrimental to Russia’s adversaries in the Western world, critically depleting weapons stockpiles and contributing to an economic crisis in Europe due to a loss of export markets and sharp rise in energy prices.