Biden Hints at Major Missile Upgrade For Ukraine’s New F-16 Fleet

Just two weeks after the delivery of the first F-16 Fighting Falcon fourth generation fighters to bases of the Ukrainian Air Force began on August 1, U.S. President Joe Biden has stated that he would be open to sending AGM-158 JASSM air launched cruise missiles with long 400 kilometre ranges to the country. Specifically, the president stated that a missile delivery remained a possibility, with Politico specifying that the JASSM was the missile class being discussed. A number of American media outlets have since reported that the Pentagon is already working on ways to modify the ageing fighters, which have been delivered second hand by a number of European states, to allow them to launch JASSM missile attacks. The JASSM missile entered service around the year 2003, and combined limited radar evading capabilities with a high level of precision guidance and a 450 kilogram warhead carrying capacity. Four countries currently operate the missiles, including Poland which received 110 missiles for its own F-16 fighters. The very small number of clients for the system, and the total lack of non-Western clients, reflects a strict policy on exporting JASSM missiles, with a South Korean request to purchase the missiles in the early 2010s notably having been denied. 

F-16s pledged to Ukraine, including the already delivered ex-Danish Air Force F-16AM/BMs, are notably obsolete Cold War era variants, and are not considered to have any remotely viable chance in air to air combat against 21st century Russian fighters with phased array radars and modern jamming systems. It has thus long been speculated that the aircraft would be deployed primarily as launch platforms for long range missiles to attack Russian targets from safe distances very far from the frontlines. Indeed, Denmark and the Netherlands have specifically given Ukraine permission to use its F-16s for deep strikes against targets on Russian soil - a feat which would be near impossible to achieve for the non-stealthy aircraft without deploying a class of long ranged cruise missile. Russian officials have repeatedly expressed concerns that Ukraine’s F-16s could be equipped to launch nuclear attacks on its territory.

Other Cold War era fighters in Ukrainian service, namely its Su-27s and Su-24Ms inherited from the Soviet Union, have already been modified to launch British and French Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles for much the same reason. The JASSM is expected to pose a greater challenge to Russian air defences than European missile designs, and reportedly has significantly superior electronic warfare countermeasures. The fact that the missiles use satellite guidance also mitigates the issue of the totally obsolete radars used by Ukrainian F-16s, which would not play any role in guiding JASSMs to their targets. While the F-16 would be easier to modify to carry JASSM missiles than Ukraine’s Soviet built fighters, a primary advantage of the F-16 for launching such attacks is that the fighter will be available in much large numbers, as while NATO members had a few dozen Soviet-built MiG-29s which could be used to equip Ukraine, F-16s in storage number in the hundreds and could be used to maintain a sizeable strike fleet and replenish losses.